10.28.04
Posted in politics at 11:02 am by
Wow. Unexpected turn of events. Michigan, a perennial democratic supporter in presidential elections, is now reported to be in a dead heat by both Strategic Vision and Zogby pollsters. Some outlets still hold that Michigan is still a 6 point Kerry favorite and conventional wisdom would hold that Kerry will likely win Michigan.
Tis a curious turn. I suppose both parties will use the opportunities to send out canvasers knocking on doors. Oh, the joy. I should get a Kerry sign out in the front lawn just to ward off Bush supporters who may try to ‘get me out to the polls’ next Tuesday. You see, I live in Republican-ville. I should be voting for Bush.
Now, I realize that Grand Rapids itself isn’t exactly a microcosm of West Michigan. Largely, the city (inside the city limits at least) is a bit more progressive than our suburban and rural neighbors. Nonetheless, I am a West Michigander. My East Lansing friends query how it is possible for such a liberal to survive in the bastion of conservativism that is West Michigan. I’ll survive, either way. Fear not friends.
I do start to wonder, though, what if we Michiganders DO turn into the next Florida 2000? It could be a mess. The city of Detroit is already prone to charges of discrimination as to the polling locations and availability. The vast majority of the state uses similar punchcard systems to those of Florida in the days of their debacle.
A sizeable African American population in our urban areas could prove a legal powderkeg if this election comes down to recounts. I’d prefer not to have to think about the ramifications. They make me shudder. God bless the lawyers, I say. I hope he blesses them because if they play a major role in the recounting of Michigan votes, I’m not sure anyone else will.
A short aside. My wife is a member of the Michigan Education Association–the state teacher’s union. She receives postcards from them telling her who they support and what ballot proposals to vote for. This year the MEA is endorsing Kerry–surprise, surprise,–a no vote on proposal 1, and a no vote on proposal 2. The first two endorsements don’t surprise me at all. They’re issues the MEA has a vested interest in–those interests being Kerry for president, and the privitisation of gambling choices. The logic is that Kerry will fund the federal mandates set forth by NCLB like W has not, and that the popular votes to determine where or where not to place casinos coud have unintended effects on things that education is dependent upon, like tax-revenues, state lottery, etc.
My question is what interest the MEA has in a constitutional amendment at the state level against gay marriage. I can’t fathom any reason the organization would want to oppose the ban. I can think of plenty of reasons for individuals to oppose the ban being made constitutional–but the MEA?
I just don’t get it?!?
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Posted in politics at 11:02 am by
Wow. Unexpected turn of events. Michigan, a perennial democratic supporter in presidential elections, is now reported to be in a dead heat by both Strategic Vision and Zogby pollsters. Some outlets still hold that Michigan is still a 6 point Kerry favorite and conventional wisdom would hold that Kerry will likely win Michigan.
Tis a curious turn. I suppose both parties will use the opportunities to send out canvasers knocking on doors. Oh, the joy. I should get a Kerry sign out in the front lawn just to ward off Bush supporters who may try to ‘get me out to the polls’ next Tuesday. You see, I live in Republican-ville. I should be voting for Bush.
Now, I realize that Grand Rapids itself isn’t exactly a microcosm of West Michigan. Largely, the city (inside the city limits at least) is a bit more progressive than our suburban and rural neighbors. Nonetheless, I am a West Michigander. My East Lansing friends query how it is possible for such a liberal to survive in the bastion of conservativism that is West Michigan. I’ll survive, either way. Fear not friends.
I do start to wonder, though, what if we Michiganders DO turn into the next Florida 2000? It could be a mess. The city of Detroit is already prone to charges of discrimination as to the polling locations and availability. The vast majority of the state uses similar punchcard systems to those of Florida in the days of their debacle.
A sizeable African American population in our urban areas could prove a legal powderkeg if this election comes down to recounts. I’d prefer not to have to think about the ramifications. They make me shudder. God bless the lawyers, I say. I hope he blesses them because if they play a major role in the recounting of Michigan votes, I’m not sure anyone else will.
A short aside. My wife is a member of the Michigan Education Association–the state teacher’s union. She receives postcards from them telling her who they support and what ballot proposals to vote for. This year the MEA is endorsing Kerry–surprise, surprise,–a no vote on proposal 1, and a no vote on proposal 2. The first two endorsements don’t surprise me at all. They’re issues the MEA has a vested interest in–those interests being Kerry for president, and the privitisation of gambling choices. The logic is that Kerry will fund the federal mandates set forth by NCLB like W has not, and that the popular votes to determine where or where not to place casinos coud have unintended effects on things that education is dependent upon, like tax-revenues, state lottery, etc.
My question is what interest the MEA has in a constitutional amendment at the state level against gay marriage. I can’t fathom any reason the organization would want to oppose the ban. I can think of plenty of reasons for individuals to oppose the ban being made constitutional–but the MEA?
I just don’t get it?!?
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Ben said,
October 28, 2004 at 12:45 pm
If the MEA is anything like the VEA in Virginia, we have a Gay & Lesbian Caucus (how is that damn word spelled?) which represents a surprisingly sizeable number of the state’s teachers. Generally one of the goals of public education is to remain sensitive to issues of multicultural interest/concern. Obviously this is one of them. The VEA fights not only for what is best for students but also what is best for the teacher’s themselves. Securing domestic partner benefits and civil rights for couples wishing to enter into a union may certainly be in their interests.
Brandon said,
October 28, 2004 at 12:47 pm
If that’s right, Ben, I can see how it would be plausible for the MEA to support the proposal.
Mainsheet said,
October 28, 2004 at 3:58 pm
It’s silly season, Brandon, and the polls are all over the map. The only one that counts is November 2.
Gallup, et al. haven’t admitted it yet, but there are serious problems with their polling methods. I’m not certain that it rises to the level of Lit Digest in 1932 (LD said Alf Landon in a landslide, and defended their prediction based on seriously flawed methods), but that’s only because none of the big polling firms have made a prediction.
The problems:
1. Decreasing participation levels in telephone surveys;
2. Increasing numbers of citizens who are off land lines, and this group is heavily biased with under 35s;
3. Failures of ‘likely voter’ models.
If it were up to me, I’d make it a Federal crime to conduct or publish a political preference poll within 120 days of an election. What polls can you trust? If you know the polling company’s methodology, look for one which bases its sample on registered voter lists, rather than random digit dialing. The voter rolls in every state I’m familiar with contain your voting history (not how you voted, simply that you did), and so you can base your sample selection on participation criteria, and come up with decent estimates that way. The national firms don’t do that, they do RDD and then screen with ‘likely voter’ questions. It’s flawed, because there’s a social stigma attached to saying something like, “Vote? Are you f*cking kidding me? Why would *I* want to vote!”
Brandon said,
October 28, 2004 at 4:12 pm
And, once you get into methodology, you need to ask yourself whether a sample of registered voters can be translated to be representative of actual voters.
Yet, the polls–arguably–shape opinion. That’s a huge concern, too.
Nonetheless, if the polls do indicate a close race in Michigan, I’m not looking forward to the aftermath.
Mainsheet said,
October 28, 2004 at 6:11 pm
That’s what the whole likely voter fiasco is about. How do you convert from “registered” to “actual”. But the models are proprietary, and generally stink.
But the polls DO shape public opinion. BushCo believe it — that’s why they’ve been spinning the “it’s all over” message so hard. They want to depress the Liberal/Centrist vote so that it will be a done deal.
That’s why, if I were Queen of the Forest, I’d ban all publication of public polls in the 120 days preceding the election. I know it’ll never pass constitutional muster, but it would be a Good Idea.
Headless-in-GR said,
October 29, 2004 at 1:42 am
They just felt pressured to have something to say -”Proposition 2? I don’t know. What do you think?”
“I don’t know. What do you think?”
“Cut the deck…high card wins…”
kitty said,
October 30, 2004 at 6:58 pm
Ilive in Hillsdale County in south-central Mich. It is widely considered as if not more conservative than West Mich. After all it is home to Hillsdale College (Ann Coulter and Dan Quayl just did a big fundraiser for them)Kerry has a lot of support here. Many 2000 Bush supporters are going to vote Kerry or sit it out.